You don’t say

In ‘A Practical Guide to Risk Management’ lees ik dit:

An example of how intuition can mislead and where probability is not intuitive is in assessing streaks or runs. Random sequences will exhibit clustering or bunching (e.g., runs of multiple heads in a sequence of coin flips), and such clustering often appears to our intuition to be nonrandom. The “random” shuffle on an iPod has actually been adjusted so it appears to us as “more random.” When the iPod was originally introduced, the random order of songs would periodically produce repetition and users hearing the same song or artist played back-to-back believed the shuffling was not random. Apple altered the algorithm to be “less random to make it feel more random,” according to Steve Jobs.

The clustering of random sequences is also why sub-random or quasi-random sequences are used for Monte Carlo simulation and Monte Carlo numerical integration; these sequences fill the space to be integrated more uniformly.

Straf, ik hoor het Michel nog zeggen toen hij zijn eerste MP3 speler net had: ‘de random functie marcheert niet goed, ik krijg regelmatig hetzelfde liedje te horen’.


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